Analysis on the Development Status, Market Demand and Future Trend of My Country's Automotive Die-Casting Mold Industry
Analysis of the current status, market demand and future trends of my country's automotive die-casting mold industry.
1. Basic Situation of My Country's Automotive Die-Casting Mold Industry
(1) Development background of the automotive die-casting mold industry
my country's die-casting mold enterprises started in the early 1990s, mainly engaged in motorcycle parts die-casting molds. Since the 21st century, with the rapid development of China's automobile industry, some leading domestic die-casting mold enterprises have increased their investment in advanced equipment, mainly producing medium-sized die-casting molds such as automobile brackets, clutches, oil pans, and manual transmissions, which has driven the rapid development of die-casting mold enterprises across the country, and greatly improved the mold manufacturing level and manufacturing process. At present, my country's output of die-casting parts ranks first in the world, and the development cycle and production level of die-casting molds have been significantly improved. Die-casting molds can not only meet the needs of large-scale and precision die-casting molds in China, but also be exported to traditional die-casting mold powers such as Europe and the United States.
(2) Automotive die-casting molds are mainly aluminum alloy die-casting molds. The demand for lightweight automobiles drives the penetration rate of automotive aluminum alloy products and aluminum alloy die-casting to increase.
Automotive die-casting molds are mainly molds used to produce aluminum alloy, magnesium alloy, copper alloy and other alloy material products, among which aluminum alloy die-casting molds account for the highest proportion. The product structure of my country's die-casting output in 2024 is as follows:
Distribution of Domestic Die-Casting Output
Lightweighting of automobiles is an important way to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction, and the improvement of component design and manufacturing is the key. Among them, the aluminum alloy die-casting process has significant advantages in the use of lightweight materials and the application of advanced manufacturing processes, promoting the integration of the die-casting industry and the green development of automobiles: aluminum alloy is light, corrosion-resistant and easy to process. With the advancement of vehicle lightweighting, the penetration rate of aluminum alloy parts has increased, and die-casting parts have been used in many parts such as body structures and engines; the national plan for the aluminum use of each vehicle in automobile lightweighting in 2025 and 2030 is 250kg/vehicle and 350kg respectively, while the aluminum use of each vehicle in my country's traditional fuel/pure electric/hybrid passenger cars in 2023 is 163kg, 202kg, and 224kg respectively. The market space is broad. According to statistics, the global aluminum die-casting market size in 2021 is US$69.4 billion, and it will reach US$112.3 billion in 2030. As the core process equipment of aluminum alloy die-casting, the market demand for die-casting molds will also continue to expand with the increase in the penetration rate of aluminum alloy castings in the automotive field.
2. Market Demand for My Country's Automotive Die-Casting Mold Industry
(1) My country's automobile production and sales are among the highest in the world, supporting the growth of the automotive die-casting mold market
With the rapid development of China's automobile industry and the continuous improvement of the automobile supply chain, the global automobile industry is gradually shifting to my country. my country's automobile production has increased from 19.27 million vehicles in 2016 to 31.28 million vehicles in 2024, and its share in the global automobile production has also increased from 22.88% to 34.64%. my country's total automobile production and sales have ranked first in the world for 16 consecutive years.
China's Automobile Production and Global Market Share
(2) The penetration rates of new energy vehicles and aluminum alloy die-casting have increased simultaneously, and the market scale of die-casting molds has expanded
Due to the advantages of energy saving and optimization of energy structure, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has continued to increase. my country's "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" promotes its high-quality development. In 2021, the sales volume will be 3.521 million vehicles (penetration rate 13.4%), and in 2024 it will reach 12.866 million vehicles (penetration rate 40.93%) and enter the stage of full marketization; its die-casting mold products are mainly aluminum alloy die-castings. Under the demand for lightweight and energy saving and emission reduction, the penetration rate of aluminum alloy has steadily increased, and the national plan for lightweight aluminum per vehicle in 2025 and 2030 is 250kg/vehicle and 350kg/vehicle respectively. In 2023, the aluminum consumption of traditional fuel/pure electric/hybrid passenger cars in my country is still far from the target. With the increase of aluminum alloy penetration rate, the market demand for automotive aluminum alloy die-casting molds will continue to expand.
(3) The launch of new and modified models is accelerating, providing growth space for automotive die-casting molds
In 2024, the number of new motor vehicle product registrations in my country will be 23,967, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.98% from 2018 to 2024, of which the number of new registrations of new energy vehicles will increase by 25.66% year-on-year. The number of new models launched in my country has increased significantly, and the upstream mold industry has great development potential.
The Number of New Motor Vehicle Product Registrations in My Country from 2018 to 2024
Automotive die-casting molds are important process equipment for automobile production. The mold development cycle includes mold design, machined parts production, mold assembly, mold debugging and other links, accounting for about two-thirds of the entire development cycle of new models.
With the increasing frequency of new and modified models, the requirements for product development cycles are getting higher and higher. According to data, the development cycle of new models has been shortened from about 4 years to 1-3 years, and the modified models have been shortened from 6-24 months to 4-15 months. The shortening of the product development cycle, mold development and design are related to the main stages of vehicle development, which requires mold companies to have strong independent research and development capabilities and efficient technical development capabilities. For the development of key components, vehicle manufacturers and first-tier suppliers usually require mold companies to participate in synchronous research and development. On the one hand, this puts higher requirements on the research and development capabilities of die-casting mold companies, and on the other hand, it is conducive to the further expansion of market share of advantageous companies.
3. Favorable and Unfavorable Factors Affecting the Development of the Industry
(1) Favorable Factors
1) Industrial policies are favorable to the development of the industry
In recent years, a series of national industrial policies have created a good development environment for the die-casting mold industry: in May 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Guidelines for Equipment Renewal and Technological Transformation in Key Industrial Industries" proposed that the automotive industry promote integrated die-casting production lines; in March 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments' "Guiding Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of the Casting and Forging Industries" listed the industrialization application of advanced process technologies such as integrated die-casting as a development goal; the National Development and Reform Commission's "Guidelines for Industrial Structure Adjustment" encourages the design and manufacture of large and precision molds; the 2021 "Industrial Basic Innovation Development Catalog" (2021 Edition) includes automotive aluminum plate plastic forming processes and mold technologies in the field of energy-saving and new energy vehicles; in the same year, the "Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" puts forward requirements for lightweight vehicles, and its transformation will drive the development of upstream integrated die-casting molds.
2) The increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles brings a continuous growth in demand for automotive die-casting molds and integrated die-casting molds
New energy vehicles have a clear demand for "energy saving and consumption reduction", and lightweight body structural parts are an important way to reduce the energy consumption of new energy vehicles. Against the background of the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the market demand for lightweight die-casting molds and integrated die-casting molds in the new energy vehicle industry has increased year by year. Since 2016, global new energy vehicle sales have maintained a fluctuating growth trend, increasing from 698,900 vehicles in 2016 to 17.529 million vehicles in 2024, with an average annual compound growth rate of 49.60%. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, my country's new energy vehicle sales in 2024 will reach 9.495 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 40.39%. The increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will drive the continued growth of demand for upstream automotive die-casting molds and integrated die-casting molds.
3) The global mold industry manufacturing focus is shifting to China, driving the export of local mid-to-high-end automotive molds
At present, the global mold industry manufacturing focus is shifting to China, and some mid-to-high-end local enterprises are gradually going overseas. The improvement of domestic mold design and manufacturing levels has enabled the industry's overall import and export to maintain a trade surplus with exports exceeding imports. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's mold imports will drop to US$1.025 billion in 2023 (a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%), and exports will increase to US$8.013 billion (a year-on-year increase of 4.4%). In addition, my country's mold industry has accumulated experience and reputation in exports, and its products are developing in the direction of large-scale, precise, complex and special process equipment integrating new technologies. Compared with other developing countries, it has technological advantages. The shift in the focus of industrial manufacturing has laid a good foundation for the development of the industry.
(2) Unfavorable Factors
1) Long manufacturing delivery cycle and high working capital requirements
The automotive mold industry is a capital-intensive industry. Due to the high investment cost of purchasing core components in the early stage of the project and the certain period of project execution, it has high working capital requirements. Some manufacturers with weak financial strength and single financing channels are restricted by capital costs and cannot quickly expand their production capacity. If the demand for funds cannot be improved, the manufacturer's investment in technology research and development, the expansion of production scale and the ability to undertake large orders will be limited, which will in turn restrict the development of the enterprise.
2) The competition for low-end products in the industry is relatively fierce
There are many companies in the automotive mold industry and they are small in scale, and the market concentration of low-end products is low. Affected by scale limitations and service radius, most companies lack high-end competitive capabilities such as customer service and brand operation. Low-end mold manufacturers often compete through low-price strategies or sacrifice product quality in exchange for short-term benefits, which to a certain extent affects the improvement of the benefits of the mid-to-high-end market.
3) Structural shortage of mid-to-high-end talents
As a technology-intensive and talent-intensive composite industry, the die-casting mold industry has strict requirements for the ability construction of professional talents. Qualified mold manufacturing professionals need to go through a long training cycle, and excellent mold engineers need to improve their abilities through systematic professional training and long-term practical accumulation. On the one hand, there are few mid-to-high-end technical talents who can master and flexibly use cutting-edge technology and processes, and develop and apply large and super-large integrated molds; on the other hand, compound management talents with both production management experience and industry technical background are also in short supply. The structural imbalance in the supply of talents mentioned above objectively restricts the technological upgrading and large-scale development of the industry.
4. Competition Pattern of Die-Casting Mold Industry
The overall competition pattern of my country's die-casting mold industry presents the characteristics of "low-end chaos and high-end lack". Low-end die-casting mold manufacturers are small in scale, large in number, and low in concentration, showing a state of full competition. High-end large-scale die-casting molds have high technical barriers, complex mold structures and usually have customization requirements, and high market concentration. Among them, super-large integrated die-casting molds are larger in size and more complex in structure. At present, only a few manufacturers in China have the ability to produce super-large integrated die-casting molds and realize mass production applications, mainly including professional die-casting mold manufacturers and large-scale die-casting manufacturers. The specific details are as follows:
